You know how every election year there’s all that polling that tells us how we are going to vote? They do it with movies, too.
And according to movie industry tracking, the Wonder Woman film starring Gal Gadot, which does not hit theaters until June 6, is going to get a strong, if not overwhelming reception.
According to Box Office Pro, Wonder Woman is expected to net an $80 million box office during its opening weekend, then drop off fairly quickly to tip the scale at total U.S. ticket sales of $225 million. That’s better than Captain Underpants, which opens the same weekend and is expected to rake in a comparatively paltry $24 million opening and an $80 million total take. It’s also better than the 315th Pirates of the Caribbean flick, which opens May 26. That’s expected to find just $61 million in its opening weekend treasure chest, and a $190 million in all. But all of these movies pale in comparison to event of our age, the near-religious experience that is Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2. BOP predicts that Marvel monster to haul in $160 million during its May 5 opening weekend, and $400 million, overall.
But just as event fatigue is a thing in comics, so, too, does it affect the theater traffic. As MovieWeb points out, not only is Wonder Woman coming in hot on the heels of Guardians and Pirates, it also arrives just weeks before the highly0anticipated Spider-Man: Homecoming movie.
“Diana Prince is going to have to deal with some very highly-anticipated Marvel movies in relatively close proximity,” the site says.
BOP, on the other hand, list the month-long buffer between Marvel movies as a “pro,” working in the movies favor, and notes it is trending well on Twitter.
“Twitter sentiment is currently registering more encouraging positive-to-negative scores in line with or slightly stronger than Suicide Squad two months out from release, a notable comparison given that film’s stronger-than-usual (for the genre) appeal to women,” it says.
Of course, DC isn’t the only one hoping Wonder Woman exceeds expectations. It’s reasonably to presume that the chances of a Black Widow solo movie ever getting the green light depends a great deal on the success (or not) of the Amazon princess, being as it is the first modern super-hero movie with a female lead.
Among the biggest “cons” working against Wonder Woman, according to BOP, are the fact that it ceded the Memorial Day weekend to other flicks, and that it’s overall social media mentions, while largely positive, are not nearly as voluminous as those for recent DCU movies, including Suicide Squad.
According to Box Office Mojo, an $80 million opening would put Wonder Woman 26th on the all-time list for super-hero movies, sandwiched between 2009’s X-Men-Origins: Wolverine, and The Incredibles, from 2004. However, that would be better than many Marvel movies, including X-Men: Apocalypse (released in 2016, ranked #27, with a $65.76 million opening); Thor (2011, 28th, $65.72M); Captain America: The First Avenger (2011, 30th, $65.06 million); and, Ant-Man (2015, 35th, $57.23M). And, hey, Ant-Man got a sequel, so there’s hope we may see more of Gadot after November’s Justice League movie.
Pulling in $200 million overall would place Wonder Woman 32’s on the all-time gross list for super-hero movies, just behind 2006’s lamentable Superman Returns, which took in $200,081,192.
According to BOM, the Top 10 super-hero movies in terms of lifetime gross (not adjusted for inflation) are:
- Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — $623.36M
- The Dark Knight (2008) — $534.86M
- Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — $459.00M
- The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — $448.14M
- Iron Man 3 (2013) — $409.01M
- Captain America: Civil War (2016) — $408.08M
- Spider-Man (2002) — $403.71M
- Spider-Man 2 (2004) — $373.59M
- Deadpool (2016) — $363.07M
- Spider-Man 3 (2007) — $336.53M
And the Top 10 listed by opening weekend:
- Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — $207.44M
- Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — $191.27M
- Captain America: Civil War (2016) — $179.14M
- Iron Man 3 (2013) — $174.14M
- Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — $166.01M
- The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — $160.89M
- The Dark Knight (2008) — $158.41M
- Spider-Man 3 (2007) — $151.12M
- Suicide Squad (2016) — $133.68M
- Deadpool (2016) — $132.43M